There will probably be further commerce associated distortions in Q2 boosting GDP.
From BofA:
Since our final weekly publication, our 2Q GDP monitoring is down one-tenth to +2.5% q/q saar. [June 27th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We lowered our Q2 GDP monitoring estimate by 0.1pp to +3.9% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 home last gross sales estimate stands at 0%. [June 27th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow mannequin estimate for actual GDP progress (seasonally adjusted annual fee) within the second quarter of 2025 is 2.9 p.c on June 27, down from 3.4 p.c on June 18. After current releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Financial Evaluation, a rise within the nowcast of the contribution of internet exports to second-quarter actual GDP progress from 2.07 share factors to three.49 share factors was greater than offset by a lower within the nowcasted GDP progress contribution of stock funding from -0.42 share factors to -2.22 share factors. [June 27th estimate]
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