Slowdown? Enterprise Cycle Indicator Knowledge as of Mid-June

With SPGMI’s month-to-month GDP, we now have the next image of collection the NBER Enterprise Cycle Relationship Committee focuses on:

Determine 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (daring blue), civilian employment utilizing smoothed inhabitants controls (orange), industrial manufacturing (crimson), private earnings excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring gentle inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (gentle blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. 2025Q1 GDP is second launch. Supply: BLS through FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA, S&P International Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (6/2/2025 launch), and creator’s calculations. 

Some various indicators are proven in Determine 2.

Determine 2: Preliminary Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (daring blue), civilian employment adjusted to NFP idea, with smoothed inhabitants controls (orange), manufacturing manufacturing (crimson), actual retail gross sales (black), and coincident index in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: Philadelphia Fed [1], Philadelphia Fed [2], Federal Reserve through FRED, BEA 2025Q1 second launch, and creator’s calculations.

Month-to-month GDP, civilian employment, civilian employment adjusted to NFP idea, manufacturing manufacturing, and retail gross sales all fell in newest month accessible. Given the excessive ranges of sampling uncertainty, I might put little weight on the family survey based mostly collection. Nonetheless, there are lots of collection which are “flat-ish”. Consumption rose in April, however at a slowing tempo.

Curiously, the Philly Fed’s coincident index — which is meant to trace GDP — has deviated considerably from month-to-month GDP (10.4% vs. 6.9%) That is doubtless as a consequence of its reliance on labor market information, which has remained remarkably resilient.

Excessive frequency (weekly) Lewis-Mertens-Inventory index has decelerated into early June, as mentioned on this put up.

Determine 3: Lewis, Mertens, Inventory Weekly Financial Index (blue), and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims Weekly Financial Circumstances Index for US plus 2% pattern (tan), all y/y progress price in %. Supply: Dallas Fed through FRED, WECI, accessed 6/12/2025.

PMI new orders recommend a slowdown as properly, with each sectors registering lower than 50.